Do people really believe the Earth is flat?
Yes. There are a surprising number of people who honestly believe the Earth is flat. I'm saying this based on my experience as manager of Te Awamutu Space Centre and my interactions with many flat-earthers both online and in the real world.
One of the most common assumptions about the flat Earth movement is that it's mostly a joke and its proponents are trolls. Although it's true that trolls and fake flat-earthers are important drivers of the recent resurgence, I think it's the genuine believers who have the big numbers and provide the most momentum.
It can be hard to tell if someone is serious when they call themselves a believer. How do we know which ones are real?
In my work at the space centre I meet a handful of flat-earthers in person each year. I'm pretty sure they're all genuine. I deal with many more online, where it's more difficult because you don't have the non-verbal clues. However you can still infer a lot from what they say, especially if you enter into a lengthy discussion, and of course you can see their public online profiles.
90% of flat-earthers put a fair bit of effort into their belief. They usually have a lengthy list of arguments to back themselves, they're familiar with globe earth arguments, and they have counter-arguments ready. They'll often have an organized collection of memes to cover every talking point.
Their online profiles contain references to the flat earth, they have flat-earth friends, and they are often involved in flat-earth discussions. They expend energy doing flat-earth-related activities that would be a waste of time for a troll. Either they are genuinely dedicated to the cause or they're putting an unholy amount of effort into their fake persona.
In summary, I don't know exactly what percentage of "active flat-earthers" are genuine but I'm confident that it's most of them.
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Author: Dave Owen.